Insights

I feel better about some of my past economic calls that haven’t panned out. Theodore Roosevelt’s quote—“The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything”—gives me some degree of solace. My mistakes show that I am at least willing to make a call. My regular readers may remember that […]

The city of Los Angeles, along with the county that shares its name, spans 4,060 square miles and is home to more than 9.6 million people, over 1,500 schools, and no racial majority. Los Angeles County’s population is larger than that of 40 U.S. states. To say that Los Angeles is vast and diverse barely […]

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” — World-renowned management consultant and author Peter Drucker From an investment return standpoint, 2024 was virtually a replay of 2023. Specifically, the S&P 500 returned a total of 25.0% in calendar year 2024, almost identical to 2023’s […]

It is possible to have too much of a good thing.” – Greek storyteller Aesop “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” – Actress and comedian Mae West A potential Santa Claus rally and post-election bounce that typically appears in the final two months of the calendar year got off to a nice […]

“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. It can intimidate everybody.” —Well-known political strategist James Carville In prepping for this month’s commentary, I did […]

Statler (S): That was the worst thing I ever heard! Waldorf (W): It was terrible! S: Horrendous! W: Well, it wasn’t that bad. S: Oh, yeah? W: Yeah, it was GOOD, actually. S: Yeah, bravo! S & W: More!! — Excerpt from well-known Statler and Waldorf “Muppets” characters’ skit After a slow start in the […]

“It doesn’t matter how smart you are unless you stop and think.” —Well-known economist Thomas Sowell Nothing like a little head-spinning drama, eh? That’s what we saw in August as virtually one or two slightly disappointing economic numbers sparked a more than 10% pullback in the technology-laden Nasdaq and pushed the S&P 500 down close […]

“Our Earth is degenerate in these later days; bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching.”– Assyrian tablet, circa 2800 B.C. These days, we are living through a period of high political tension. The national […]

“It’s déjà vu all over again.”— Yogi Berra The first six months of 2024 were equally as kind to investors as the first six months of 2023. And that’s saying something, knowing that calendar-year total return in 2023 for the full year exceeded 26%.1 Returns for the S&P 500 in both six-month periods at the start […]

“It’s the economy, stupid!” —Slogan coined by James Carville, well-known campaign strategist, and former President Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential campaign April showers brought May flowers, indeed. The S&P 500 advanced over 4% in May following a decline of that same magnitude in April.1 This past month was a nice “in your face” start to […]

“Some things are believed because they are demonstrably true. But many other things are believed simply because they have been asserted repeatedly—and repetition has been accepted as a substitute for evidence.” —Well-known economist and author Thomas Sowell April just wasn’t any fun. The S&P 500 fell 4.2% in the month, its worst monthly showing since […]

“Sell in May and Go Away.” — An old investment adage with roots dating back to 18th century England. Also known as the “Halloween Indicator.” The Santa Claus rally that started in October 2023 and saw the S&P 500 surge by 14% in last year’s final two months,1 including a record-setting 10 consecutive weeks of gains in […]

“We’re runnin’ outta timeSo, tonight we’re gonna party like it’s 1999.” – Lyrics from Prince’s song and album of the same name, “1999” The inspiration for famous singer Prince in producing his hit song “1999” emanated from a documentary he saw about Nostradamus, a 16th century French astrologer who predicted various future global catastrophes, including several […]

The numbers are in—no more guessing about growth levels or inflation rates for 2023. That is all in the rearview mirror (not counting upcoming adjustments to historical gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates). Many are suggesting the U.S. economy is experiencing a reasonably rare “Goldilocks” environment, meaning a “just right” level of inflation and growth. […]

Our theme for the equity market as we approached 2023 was: 2023 is likely to be the inverse of 2022. We’re deeply gratified that this became reality. Unlike many, we expected solid results for stocks this past year, and that is exactly what investors got. This cheer came on the heels of 2022, which saw […]